In December 2024, the Environment Agency released a comprehensive update to the National Assessment of Flood Risk (NaFRA), revealing that approximately 6.3 million properties in England are now situated in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea, or surface water. This figure represents a significant increase from previous assessments, largely due to enhanced data collection and improved modelling techniques. With climate change projections, this number is expected to rise to around 8 million by the mid-21st century, meaning one in four properties could be at risk.

Key Findings from the Updated Flood Risk Assessment

  • Surface Water Flooding: Approximately 4.6 million properties are at risk from surface water flooding, often resulting from heavy rainfall overwhelming drainage systems. This marks a 43% increase from prior assessments, attributed to better data and modelling.
  • River and Sea Flooding: Around 2.4 million properties are at risk from river and sea flooding. Notably, there’s an 88% increase in properties at the highest risk levels, defined as having more than a 1 in 30 chance of flooding annually.
  • Regional Variations: The East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber, and the South East regions account for about half of the properties at high or medium flood risk.

Implications for Property Owners

Property Values and Marketability

Properties located in high flood-risk areas may experience depreciation in value due to potential buyers’ concerns over flood damage and increased insurance premiums. A study by Bayes Business School indicated that a 1% increase in flood risk could lead to a 0.13% to 0.19% decline in property prices.

Insurance Considerations

The Flood Re scheme, established in 2016, aims to provide affordable flood insurance to high-risk households. However, this scheme is set to conclude in 2039, raising concerns about the future availability and affordability of flood insurance. Property owners are encouraged to implement flood resilience measures to mitigate risks and potential insurance challenges.

Planning and Development

The updated flood risk assessment has significant implications for urban planning and development. Local authorities are urged to consider flood risks in planning decisions, especially with the government’s target of constructing 1.5 million new homes by the end of the current parliament. Building in high-risk areas without adequate mitigation measures could exacerbate flooding issues and place more properties at risk.

Government Initiatives and Future Outlook

In response to the increasing flood risks, the government has pledged an additional £250 million, bringing the total investment in flood defences to £2.65 billion for the two years ending March 2026. This funding aims to protect an extra 66,500 properties from flooding.

While these investments are crucial, property owners must remain proactive. Staying informed about local flood risks, implementing property-level resilience measures, and ensuring adequate insurance coverage are essential steps in safeguarding properties against the evolving threat of flooding.

Sources:

  • Environment Agency. (2024). National Assessment of Flood Risk Update. Retrieved from gov.uk
  • Bayes Business School. (2023). Residential Property Flood Risk in the UK. Retrieved from bayes.city.ac.uk
  • UK Parliament. (2024). Flood Re and the Future of Flood Insurance. Retrieved from publications.parliament.uk
  • The Guardian. (2025). More Than 100,000 Homes in England Could Be Built in Highest-Risk Flood Zones. Retrieved from theguardian.com
  • The Guardian. (2025). Minister Promises to Spend £250m to Top Up England’s Flood Defences. Retrieved from theguardian.com
  • The Times. (2025). A Million More Homes at Risk of Flooding Than Six Years Ago. Retrieved from thetimes.co.uk
  • Financial Times. (2025). Flooding Risk Will Affect 1 in 4 English Properties by Mid-Century, Says Report. Retrieved from ft.com
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